Calculate at least one success
With a 3% rate across 10 independent attempts, the chance of at least one success is about 26.26%.
How the formula works
The calculator first estimates the chance of missing every attempt. It then subtracts that miss chance from 100% to estimate the chance of at least one success.
Example use case
If one attempt has a 3% chance and you try 10 times, the calculator gives about 26.26% for at least one success. This also means the chance of missing every attempt is still about 73.74%.
Limitations
- The model assumes each attempt is independent and has the same success rate.
- It does not handle pity systems, changing rates, shrinking pools, or hidden rules.
- It cannot predict a specific result or guarantee success.
FAQ
Why is 3% across 10 attempts not exactly 30%?
Because each attempt can miss. The formula calculates the chance of missing every attempt first, then subtracts that from 100%.
What does independent attempt mean?
It means one attempt does not change the success rate of the next attempt. If the rate changes after each attempt, this calculator is not the right model.
Can this calculator guarantee a result?
No. It explains probability under a simple model. Random outcomes can still miss even when the success percentage looks high.